Research

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Current research

At the threshold: the increasing relevance of the middle-income trap
(with Patrick Imam) Upwards mobility in relative TFP Is limited.

Have autocrats governed for the long term?
(with Emanuele Millemaci and Fabio Monteforte) The short answer is: probably not.

Recently published

Political institutions and output collapses
(with Patrick Imam) Are democracies more resilient?
European Journal of Political Economy, 85, December 2024, 102573.

Review of Jeff E. Biddle, Progress Through Regression: The Life Story of the Empirical Cobb-Douglas Production Function
Œconomia, 11(3), September 2021, 571-576 (open access).

Development priorities: the relative benefits of agricultural growth
(with Fabio Monteforte and Mathan Satchi) Examining sectoral priorities.
Oxford Economic Papers, 73(3), July 2021, 1122-1152.

Growth econometrics
Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, Oxford University Press, online, April 2021.

Papers that are “sleeping”

Life during structural transformation
(with Huikang Ying) Does the Kuznets process lead to a Kuznets curve? December 2014. To be revised.

Convergence behaviour in exogenous growth models
(with Jochonia Mathunjwa) We study the approximations used in the study of growth and convergence, and discuss heterogeneity in convergence rates across countries and over time. April 2007.

Dualism and aggregate productivity
What are the consequences of intersectoral wage differentials and urban unemployment for aggregate productivity, wages and returns to capital, factor shares, and sectoral structure? To be revised.

Does external trade promote financial development?
(with Yongfu Huang) An empirical study of the effects of trade on finance. August 2005.

GMM estimation of empirical growth models
(with Stephen Bond and Anke Hoeffler) We advocate the use of system GMM to estimate growth models, rather than the more usual Arellano-Bond method.

Structural change and Europe’s Golden Age
Labour reallocation and productivity growth in post-war Europe. To be revised.

Main papers

  • Growth econometrics
    Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance, Oxford University Press, online, April 2021.
  • Dynamic aid allocation
    Journal of International Economics, 95(2), March 2015, 291-304 (open access).
    (with Patrick Carter and Fabien Postel-Vinay)
  • Regional growth and regional decline
    Handbook of Economic Growth, Philippe Aghion and Steven Durlauf (eds.), Volume 2B, The Netherlands: North-Holland, January 2014.
    (with Holger Breinlich and Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano)
  • Aid and conditionality
    Handbook of Development Economics, Dani Rodrik and Mark R. Rosenzweig (eds.) Vol. 5, The Netherlands: North-Holland, 2010, pp. 4415-4523.
  • The econometrics of convergence
    Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 2: Applied Econometrics
    Terence C. Mills and Kerry Patterson (eds.), Palgrave Macmillan, June 2009
    (with Steven N. Durlauf and Paul A. Johnson)
  • The methods of growth econometrics
    Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 2: Applied Econometrics
    Terence C. Mills and Kerry Patterson (eds.), Palgrave Macmillan, June 2009
    (with Steven N. Durlauf and Paul A. Johnson)
  • Growth econometrics
    Handbook of Economic Growth, P. Aghion and S. N. Durlauf (eds.), Volume 1A, North-Holland, 2005, pp. 555-677
    (with Steven N. Durlauf and Paul A. Johnson)

Other papers

  • Aid conditionality
    The Companion to Development Studies (fourth edition). Emil Dauncey, Vandana Desai and Robert B. Potter (eds.), Routledge, 2024 (Brief chapter is a revised version of 2014, below).
  • What explains productivity growth
    Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies
    Alistair Dieppe (ed.), World Bank, 2020.
    (with Alistair Dieppe, Atsushi Kawamoto, Yoki Okawa, and Cedric Okou)
  • Implementation cycles and the New Economy in retrospect
    Knowledge, Innovation and Internationalization: Essays in Honour of Cesare Imbriani, Piergiuseppe Morone (ed.), Routledge, 2013.
    (with Pasquale Scaramozzino and Nir Vulkan)
  • International income convergence.
    The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy, K. A. Reinert, R. S. Rajan, A. J. Glass and L. S. Davis (eds.), Princeton University Press, 2008.
  • Balanced growth
    The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (second edition), S. N. Durlauf and L. E. Blume (eds.), Palgrave Macmillan, May 2008. Reprinted in Durlauf, S. N. and Blume, L. E. (eds.) Economic Growth. Palgrave Macmillan, 2010.
  • Discussion of Chamon, Mauro and Okawa, Mass car ownership in the emerging market giants.
    Economic Policy, April 2008, 54, 286-288.
  • Discussion of Inklaar, Timmer and van Ark, Market services productivity across Europe and the US.
    Economic Policy, January 2008, 53, 175-177.
  • Discussion of Easterly, Are aid agencies improving?
    Economic Policy, October 2007, 52, 673-675.
  • Discussion of Fabrizio and Mody, Can budget institutions counteract fiscal indiscipline?
    Economic Policy, October 2006, 48, 728-730.
  • Openness and TFP growth: comments and new directions.
    Openness and growth, J. Proudman and S. Redding (eds.), Bank of England, 1998.
  • Growth in open economies. In P. Aghion and P. Howitt,
    Endogenous Growth Theory, MIT Press 1998
    (with Philippe Aghion, Peter Howitt and Stephen Redding)
  • Testing for endogenous growth. In P. Aghion and P. Howitt,
    Endogenous Growth Theory, MIT Press 1998
    (with Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt)

Reprints

Balanced growth. Reprinted in Durlauf, S. N. and Blume, L. E. (eds.) Economic Growth. Palgrave Macmillan, 2010. Previously published: 2008.

Inflation and growth: stories short and tall. Included in 25th Anniversary Virtual Issue: The Top 25 Papers in 25 Years: The Editors’ Cut. Journal of Economic Surveys, 2011. Previously published: 2000.

Generalizations that aren’t? Evidence on education and growth. Reprinted in Belfield, C. R. (ed.) Modern classics in the economics of education, Edward Elgar, 2006. Previously published: 2001.

The long-run implications of growth theories. Reprinted in George, D., Oxley, L. and Carlaw, K. (2003). Surveys in Economic Growth: Theory and Empirics. Blackwell, Oxford. Previously published: 2003.

Growth effects of education and social capital in the OECD countries. Reprinted in Historical Social Research, 27(4), 5-46, 2002. Previously published: 2001.

The new growth evidence. Reprinted in Dutt, A. K. (ed.) The political economy of development, Volume 1. Development, growth and income distribution. Elgar Reference Collection. International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, vol. 140. Cheltenham, U.K. and Northampton, Mass.: Elgar; distributed by American International Distribution Corporation, Williston, Vt., 2002, pp. 31-75. Previously published: 1999.